By: Josh Stanley
Just over 60 games into the 2012 MLB season and the American League East is the closest it's been in awhile. Only 6.5 games seperate the first place New York Yankees and the fifth place Boston Red Sox and there is still about 100 games left to go. After breaking down the numbers for each team, I have come up with some predictions of how things will look when the season ends.
Just over 60 games into the 2012 MLB season and the American League East is the closest it's been in awhile. Only 6.5 games seperate the first place New York Yankees and the fifth place Boston Red Sox and there is still about 100 games left to go. After breaking down the numbers for each team, I have come up with some predictions of how things will look when the season ends.
Taking a look at the bottom of the division first, it's quite obvious why the Red Sox and Blue Jays are down there. Both teams are in the top 5 in runs scored in the MLB, but both teams are also in the bottom 15 in ERA. The Blue Jays staff has faired a litte better this year ranking 18th in ERA with a 4.06. Being at home or on the road has not mattered to the Blue Jays, but they do perform a little better when they are away from the Rogers Centre with a 4.04 ERA compared to 4.08 at home. The same cannot be said for the Red Sox though. The Red Sox are ranked 25th in the MLB with a 4.36 ERA, but they hold a some what better road 4.02 ERA compared to their home 4.65 ERA. The moral is that unless the Blue Jays and Red Sox's staffs pick things up soon, they are going to find themselves falling further away from the top of the division and out of reach of a playoff berth.
Keeping on the note of pitching in the AL East, the Rays have the best staff of the five teams. Ranked 8th in the MLB with a 3.60 ERA, the Rays have seen a lot of success from not only the starters, but the bullpen as well. The usual garbage reliever Fernando Rodney is one of the best closers in the league this year and sophomore pitcher Jeremy Hellickson continues to carry the starters with a 2.65 ERA. David Price sports a nice 3.01 ERA and has been dominate at home. The only problem with the Rays this year though is their bats. Currently ranked 18th in run scoring in the MLB, the Rays staff does not get any run support some days, but that may all change in the next couple of weeks when Evan Longoris returns to the lineup. If he can come back and swing a hot bat and trigger some more bats to pick it up, the Rays could easily be found at the top of the division in October.
But the biggest suprise of course is the second place Orioles. After usally being found at the bottom of the division, the Orioles have turned heads with their 37-26 record and are only .5 games behind the Yankees. Suprisingly, the Orioles staff has been pretty good and they are ranked 11th in the MLB with a 3.79 ERA. Jason Hammel and Wei Yin-Chen both have sub-4 ERAs and have won six games each. The only problem for the Orioles is the other starters. Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz have been inconsistent all season and either dominate or get blown up when they are on the mound. The only lucky break for them is that the bullpen is one of the best in the MLB and has kept the runs to a minimum after they come out. The Orioles aren't going to be able to continue with their pace if these guys don't figure things out, but if they can lower their ERAs to a low-4 or sub-4 ERA, their bats will get them the lead and a better chance of winning. With hot starts from Adam Jones and Chris Davis, the 10th ranked run scoring team in the MLB could find themselves hovering around a playoff spot for the first time since 1997.
And without further ado, the first place Yankees are the leaders of the pack. At 37-25, the Yankees are heating up. Ranked 8th in scoring and 9th in ERA, the Yankees are the most balance team in the division and MLB. At first, the blow from losing Mariano Rivera for the season put a damper on the team's playoff hopes, but the Yankees haven't missed a beat since. C.C. Sabathia is doing is usual thing dominating and winning each start and old man Andy Pettitte looks like the 2003 Pettitte who won 20 games. Hiroki Kuroda has done well in his first year in the Bronx with a sub-3.50 ERA and six wins, but Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes have been inconsistent until recent. Nova and Hughes have seemed to find their best "stuff" and have looked like two more aces with five wins each in their last seven starts. The only shaky part of the staff is the bullpen who is inexperienced without Rivera, but Rafael Soriano has become a dominate closer since taking over and David Robertson comes off the DL today. The Yankees are looking good with this dominate staff and of course their veteran batters Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano to name a few are producing like they were expected too. With a loaded offense and fantastic staff, the Yankees may be adding another AL East pennant in October.
After dissecting the division, I have come to my conclusion of what will happen over the final 100 games. The list below on the left is the current standings in the AL East and the list on the right is my projected standings when it is all said and done. I think having so many veterans will help the Yankees, as long as they stay healthy, and the great pitching staff of the Rays will keep them alive. The Red Sox will need to shake off the injury bug and get help from their starters if they want to make it anywhere close to the top. I think the lack of pitching in Baltimore will hurt the Orioles and that is what will start the free fall for them and the Blue Jays need more arms to contend. But hey, 100 games left, anything can happen.
Keeping on the note of pitching in the AL East, the Rays have the best staff of the five teams. Ranked 8th in the MLB with a 3.60 ERA, the Rays have seen a lot of success from not only the starters, but the bullpen as well. The usual garbage reliever Fernando Rodney is one of the best closers in the league this year and sophomore pitcher Jeremy Hellickson continues to carry the starters with a 2.65 ERA. David Price sports a nice 3.01 ERA and has been dominate at home. The only problem with the Rays this year though is their bats. Currently ranked 18th in run scoring in the MLB, the Rays staff does not get any run support some days, but that may all change in the next couple of weeks when Evan Longoris returns to the lineup. If he can come back and swing a hot bat and trigger some more bats to pick it up, the Rays could easily be found at the top of the division in October.
But the biggest suprise of course is the second place Orioles. After usally being found at the bottom of the division, the Orioles have turned heads with their 37-26 record and are only .5 games behind the Yankees. Suprisingly, the Orioles staff has been pretty good and they are ranked 11th in the MLB with a 3.79 ERA. Jason Hammel and Wei Yin-Chen both have sub-4 ERAs and have won six games each. The only problem for the Orioles is the other starters. Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz have been inconsistent all season and either dominate or get blown up when they are on the mound. The only lucky break for them is that the bullpen is one of the best in the MLB and has kept the runs to a minimum after they come out. The Orioles aren't going to be able to continue with their pace if these guys don't figure things out, but if they can lower their ERAs to a low-4 or sub-4 ERA, their bats will get them the lead and a better chance of winning. With hot starts from Adam Jones and Chris Davis, the 10th ranked run scoring team in the MLB could find themselves hovering around a playoff spot for the first time since 1997.
And without further ado, the first place Yankees are the leaders of the pack. At 37-25, the Yankees are heating up. Ranked 8th in scoring and 9th in ERA, the Yankees are the most balance team in the division and MLB. At first, the blow from losing Mariano Rivera for the season put a damper on the team's playoff hopes, but the Yankees haven't missed a beat since. C.C. Sabathia is doing is usual thing dominating and winning each start and old man Andy Pettitte looks like the 2003 Pettitte who won 20 games. Hiroki Kuroda has done well in his first year in the Bronx with a sub-3.50 ERA and six wins, but Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes have been inconsistent until recent. Nova and Hughes have seemed to find their best "stuff" and have looked like two more aces with five wins each in their last seven starts. The only shaky part of the staff is the bullpen who is inexperienced without Rivera, but Rafael Soriano has become a dominate closer since taking over and David Robertson comes off the DL today. The Yankees are looking good with this dominate staff and of course their veteran batters Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano to name a few are producing like they were expected too. With a loaded offense and fantastic staff, the Yankees may be adding another AL East pennant in October.
After dissecting the division, I have come to my conclusion of what will happen over the final 100 games. The list below on the left is the current standings in the AL East and the list on the right is my projected standings when it is all said and done. I think having so many veterans will help the Yankees, as long as they stay healthy, and the great pitching staff of the Rays will keep them alive. The Red Sox will need to shake off the injury bug and get help from their starters if they want to make it anywhere close to the top. I think the lack of pitching in Baltimore will hurt the Orioles and that is what will start the free fall for them and the Blue Jays need more arms to contend. But hey, 100 games left, anything can happen.
Current AL East Standings1. New York Yankees (37-25) 2. Baltimore Orioles (37-26) 3. Tampa Bay Rays (35-29) 4. Toronto Blue Jays (31-32) 5. Boston Red Sox (31-32) | Projected AL East Standings1. New York Yankees (98-64)* 2. Tampa Bay Rays (91-71)* 3. Baltimore Orioles (85-77) 4. Boston Red Sox (83-79) 5. Toronto Blue Jays (76-86) *Playoffs |
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